NRL Round 4
My Game Handicaps | Market (handicap and total points are market)
+7.5
+6.5 Eagles v Roosters | 46.5 | Raymond
-12.5
-13.5 Warriors v Tigers | 46.5 | Gee
-1.5
-3.5 Broncos v Dolphins | 50.5 | Klein
-15.5
-13.5 Bulldogs v Knights | 46.5 | Gough
-16.5
-14.5 Panthers v Eels | 47.5 | Smith
+9.5
+14.5 Cowboys v Storm | 50.5 | Sutton
-3.5
-1.5 Raiders v Sharks | 47.5 | Atkins
-1.5
-1.5 Titans v Dragons | 51.5 | Kennedy
My Bets
4.5u Warriors-Tigers under 47.5 $1.90 BB
2.5u Dolphins win $2.25
4.5u Panthers 13+ $1.75 BB
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Notes
4.5u Warriors-Tigers under 47.5 $1.90 BB
Tigers key injury outs and doubts of halves line up; Warriors at venue avg: 41.1 pts; H2H avg: 42.4 pts; 23mm rain forecast Wednesday; 63 to 71mm rain forecast for Thursday; 12mm rain forecast for game day; Gee ref
2.5u Dolphins win $2.25
What we saw last weekend (whacking Sharks in Sydney) I expected the week prior, still tricky to trust but get their chance here; Broncos 2nd half win last week might be more about Storm, Haas big out, still leaking points and now Te’o drama who is very close to and highly regarded by players
4.5u Panthers 13+ $1.75 BB
Panthers look a level above at present, have conceded only two tries in three games and offered some calculated impressive attack; Eels have 3 outs, edge defence weakness, dominated in every key metric last week yet somehow won (Dragons shite) and just don’t look at this stage up to this level
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Staking notes at the base of this message thread
My Line Picks
Roosters minus
Tigers plus
Dolphins plus
Bulldogs minus
Panthers minus
Storm plus
Raiders minus
Dragons plus
Game Tips
Roosters by 4
Warriors by 8
Dolphins by 6
Bulldogs by 16
Panthers by 20
Storm by 12
Raiders by 4
Dragons by 4
Game Notes
Please note there are also individual message posts for each game that include the game notes plus Game Preview Sheet plus data market analysis sheet
Eagles v Roosters
Manly return from the bye with serious questions after consecutive home losses — a golden point defeat to the Raiders followed by a woeful 36-16 capitulation to a Knights side depleted before halftime — leaving them exposed through the middle with no apparent bench depth. The Roosters bring their own inconsistency, having conceded 40+ points twice already, and carry a poor away favourite record (27% from last 37), though their forward grunt and 10 wins from the last 14 against Manly speaks for itself. With Seibold's job under the microscope, DCE's return to Brookvale adding spice, and the contest likely decided up the middle where the Roosters hold a clear edge. Roosters by 6.
Warriors v Tigers
The Warriors on the back of a historic 3-0 start — dismantling the Roosters, Raiders and Knights by a combined 120-36 — and carry a 9-game winning streak over the Tigers plus four straight home wins in this fixture, though they've historically struggled to cover wide lines. The Tigers showed promise thumping the Cowboys in Round 1 but followed it with a scrappy loss to the Rabbitohs, and now face the trip to Auckland without Luai and with Doueihi a serious doubt — compounded by a woeful away record stretching back to Round 11 last season. Heavy rain forecast for game day shapes this as a tight, low-scoring affair that should suit the Warriors' at home and opponents without Luai. Warriors by 8.
Broncos v Dolphins
Brisbane host the Dolphins in what shapes as a genuine contest, with the Broncos coming off an impressive Melbourne win but carrying real concerns — Haas is out, Te'o has departed, and questions linger over whether their defensive improvement is sustainable or simply a flattering result against a poor opponent. Reynolds' return could also limit the creative freedom Walsh showed last week. The Dolphins arrive with confidence after a resounding away win over the Sharks, though their own consistency is under the microscope after barely scraping past the Titans the week prior. Dolphins by 6.
Bulldogs v Knights
The Bulldogs are 2-0 but unconvincing in attack — both wins were by thin margins and the red zone execution remains clunky — though their defence is again quality and a first true home game at Accor, where they won 8 of 12 last season, should provide a welcome boost. The Knights arrive having shown promise before Ponga and Brown went down, and while Sharpe is named to return, the question of where their points come from against this defensive wall looms large. With the Bulldogs' defensive structure expected to suffocate a depleted Knights attack, this shapes as a comfortable home win — Bulldogs by 16.
Panthers v Eels
The Panthers have been the picture of polished efficiency through three rounds — comfortable wins over top-eight contenders, just two tries conceded, and that trademark composure and multi-gear attack already on full display. The Eels sit at 2-1 but the record flatters them — they've conceded more points than any team in the competition, lost nearly every game metric last week against the Dragons, and now head in short three players. The numbers tell the story bluntly: the Eels are conceding 34 points a game, the Panthers just 4 — only complacency imo prevents a wide margin Panthers by 20.
Cowboys v Storm
The Cowboys relieved some pressure with a home win last week but their overall form remains thin, and facing a Storm side motivated to respond after a second-half collapse against the Broncos represents a significant step up in class. Melbourne have won softly in patches this season and were again haunted by late-game vulnerability last week, potentially carrying injuries out of that loss, yet remain the clear class edge in this matchup. Their record of 14 wins from the last 17 against the Cowboys is compelling, but covering the line just twice in the last 10 meetings suggests the wide margin start warrants caution. Storm by 12.
Raiders v Sharks
Two sides carrying identical 1-2 records and back-to-back losses, with the Raiders the more encouraging of the pair — competitive in tough conditions last week and retaining home advantage — though their habit of surrendering long ball-in-hand periods and inviting momentum swings against them remains a real concern. The Sharks were passable against the Panthers but then fell well short of expectations at home as heavy favourites against the Dolphins, with key leaders off their game in a performance that demands a response — though that same response was expected last week. History between these sides favours tight, low-scoring contests, and with the Raiders at home holding the edge. Raiders by 4.
Titans v Dragons
Two winless sides desperate for a breakthrough, with the Titans finally getting a home game after a brutal early draw and showing some genuine promise with Jaden Campbell back and causing problems — if they can push tempo and shift the ball, this could be an uncomfortable night for their opponents. The Dragons have been equally poor, dominating game metrics last week yet still losing, and now head in without the Couchman brothers with serious questions around where their attack spark actually comes from. Flanagan has a knack for extracting desperation wins from his sides and the Dragons need exactly that here, but the Titans' ability to open the game up at pace makes this a genuine toss-up. Small lean Dragons.
Odds Comparison
Aus Sports Betting Odds Comparison
Staking
Our likely weekly outlay is 6 to 10 units, with the recommended units bet indicated next to each bet in the bet list. The base bet is 1 to max 5 units (and this is also a reflection of confidence.
Everyone chooses to bet in different bet sizes, from differing betting banks (the personal funds they put aside for betting). Some will bet $20 per bet, some $200 per bet. So as to keep things simple and clear for everyone to follow we then talk in bet units. Our advice is to decide what size betting unit is likely to work for you and call this your betting unit, remembering that you may have approx. 5 to 10 units of recommended outlay per week per sport and that you also run the risk of losing.
Longer Term | Futures Plays
3u Titans most losses $4.00 (12th March)
4u Storm to miss Top 8 $3.70 (pre-season)
3u Titans Most Losses (Spoon) $5.00 (pre-season)
6.5u Titans Bottom 4 $1.91 (pre-season)
3u Titans winless after 6 rounds $6.50 (pre-season)
4.5u Roosters Top 4 $2.30 (pre-season)
4.5u Warriors Top 8 $2.30 (pre-season)
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